It won’t surprise you that I’m bullish on stocks this year but what do other experts think? My views are driven by the fact that Donald Trump can’t have a recession and Wall Street crash before the end of 2020, which will bring the next US election. He has to cut a trade deal with China and the Fed minutes released overnight confirm that Jerome Powell and his Fed will be “patient” with interest rate rises in 2019.
It’s why the S&P500 in the USA has rebounded 9.9% since December 24. And it’s why our market has comeback 6.3% since December 21. Remember, we did not fall as much as the Yanks and that’s why our buyback of stocks is less impressive. Also, we have local headwinds, which I talked about on Monday, including the Royal Commission recommendations and how they might affect bank stocks and the upcoming election, with Bill Shorten a raging hot favourite to win with a bagful of anti-investment policies.
Sven Henrich, the respected technical analyst from marketwatch.com, is in the tentatively optimistic camp but points out that if a Trump trade deal fails to substantially excite Wall Street, then effectively the current rally is a sucker’s rally.