Trasurban (TCL), is it a good investment for current shareholders?

Do you think the Transurban offer that went out today is a good value buy for current shareholders?

A: Transurban is currently trading at $14.93, so on paper, buying it at a maximum of $14.70 looks like a good deal. In fact, you will pay a maximum of $14.70 or 2 percent below the ASX trading price during the last week of August. Applications close 30 August and there is probably a good chance it will be oversubscribed and subject to a scale back.

 

Is it a good long term investment? I am a huge fan of Transurban, but around $14.70, I am sensing it to be a little expensive. The forecast distribution of 62 cents next puts it on a yield of 4.2%. With 4c likely to be franked, it grosses up to 4.3% – interesting, pretty secure, but not particularly compelling. I also think there is a little more risk around ongoing traffic growth – so that the rate of distribution growth may slow from high single digit to low single digit.


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