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I am very concerned about the situation in 2015 for loan defaults by countries such as Russia and France that are in dire economic straights, and the possibility of the exit of Greece from the Euro.
Have you factored into your forecast the possible sociopolitical affects of this happening?
A: I think it is very, very unlikely that France is going to default – so no, I have not factored this in. Russia may be slightly more possible.
A Greek exit from the euro? Possible. Would it have much impact on the world economy – maybe not. There is a strong argument that the rest of Europe is much more insulated from Greece than 3 or 4 years ago and the risk of contagion (ie impact on Europe’s banks) would be a lot smaller.
Bottom line – I know that there will be an external shock or two – I can’t really say what these are going to be or how impactfull they might be on stock prices. My bottom line is that based on all the information we have in hand at the moment, global stock markets will rally in 2015.
