My watching brief of the stock market and the economy, as well as all of the related markets and forces that drive shares from currency markets to government regulations to Donald Trump, still tells me that believing in this unusual bull market makes perfect sense.
When my wife and I go to London in December, we will be collecting on a bet I made with this country’s most celebrated doomsday merchants — Professor Steve Keen. He predicted a recession this year here and elsewhere and I put it to him that if he’s wrong he’ll have to take us out to the best Chinese restaurant in London — Hakkasan. This is going to hurt his hip-pocket but it will be less than the pain he and his ilk have imposed on those who believed him.
The bet was made before Donald Trump was made President, so anyone who bought Steve’s pessimistic line could have missed out on the 14% return stocks delivered over 2016-17. Sure, they have avoided the sideways trade since April but dividends and franking credits still should top what term deposits are paying.