What I’m looking at right now might be the riskiest safe play or the safest risky play of all time. One of the greatest mistakes a long-term investor can make is to care too much about their short-run returns. But I reckon at least 80% of the people reading this right now fall foul of this crazy tendency.
Before revealing my investment idea, let me take you back to some of my best, safe but risky calls to see if I have any track record to believe in.
Back to the future
In late 2008, after the US Government started to bail out its banks and carmakers and the Fed’s Ben Bernanke was talking about his ‘helicopter’ solution of sprinkling money on to the economy to beat the threat of a Great Depression, I started talking up stocks. I pointed out that after a crash the Aussie market rebounded by anything between 30-80%, but I had to wait until March 2009 before it all started.