Eurozone recession to be short, economists predict

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The eurozone will tumble into a brief recession for two quarters at the end of 2011 and early 2012, according to forecasts published jointly on Wednesday by leading French, German and Italian economic institutes.

France’s Insee, Germany’s Ifo and Italy’s Istat all lowered their forecasts from previous ones made in October.

The three institutes now expect gross domestic product (GDP) in the eurozone to have contracted by 0.3 per cent in the final quarter of 2011, to be followed by a 0.2 per cent contraction in the first quarter of 2012.

A recession is commonly defined as two consecutive quarters of contraction.

They expect the 17-nation eurozone to then eke out 0.1 per cent growth in the second quarter.

“Taking stock of the deterioration of business surveys since the summer, the eurozone is expected to undergo a short recession with GDP declining around the turn of the year and stagnating in Q2 2012,” they said in a statement.

“Household consumption will be held back by fiscal consolidation and deteriorating labour market conditions,” the institutes added forecasting it to have dropped by 0.1 per cent in the fourth quarter and remain stagnant in the first and second quarters of 2012.

Investment is also expected to fall due to public cutbacks and private companies delaying projects.

According to the latest figures published by Eurostat, also on Wednesday, the eurozone managed just 0.1 per cent growth in the third quarter of 2011.