I was both right and wrong about the Royal Commission.
I didn’t think it was necessary at the time, nor did I expect it to discover such poor behaviour by the industry. I was shocked at some of the revelations. Its impact on bank share prices was materially higher than I foresaw.
The “right” part was that most of the reforms to “fix” the industry were already underway when the Commission started and that when it came to crafting hard recommendations, the Commissioner and his team of lawyers would struggle to come up with anything that would concern shareholders too much.