It was only six days ago that I argued that I was ‘right’ on my 6000 call for the stock market by year’s end but it could be a little delayed! And then by the week’s end, I advanced the argument put forward by US market watcher Dennis Gartman that maybe we’re looking at, wait for it, a market melt-up!
Recall that I think we’d need a scary, black swan event to give us a chance of seeing a 10% correction because the economic news is generally so good and interest rates are so low that dip buyers will be keen to go long stocks whenever the market dives at least 5%. (A Russian convoy of 90 trucks carrying supplies for humanitarian reasons crossed into Ukraine overnight, if they’re attacked, it could really hurt this week’s optimism.)
Technical experts think we need a correction to bring us back to fair value but those historically low interest rates are distorting the normal way markets play.