Question 1: Following from what I understand was a disappointing profit report from Treasury Wine Estates (TWE), would now be a good time to buy this stock? I am a long term holder.
Answer: For the long, yes. For the short term, I would be inclined to wait as the history of market jolters such as what has happened to TWE is that stocks don’t re-rate quickly. It rarely stops with the first fall – there is a lot of “egg on face” with the analyst and investor community. And it has been a massive fall for TWE. From $17.70 going into the Australia Day long weekend, it closed yesterday at $12.35 – a fall of 30.3%.
According to FN Arena, the consensus broker target price still sits at $17.78. This will come down a touch as more brokers revise their targets. Of those who have (post the announcement of TWE’s problems in the USA), UBS has a target of $18, Morgan Stanley $15, Ord Minnett $15 and Citi is at $15.60.