My first rule with takeover targets is that the stock must be a worthy investment in its own right. Speculating on a takeover, let alone getting the timing right, is a mug’s game.
The goal: to buy quality companies trading below their intrinsic value and offering a high margin of safety. If the market cannot see the value, global or local competitors will, knowing that the takeover target would be more valuable under different ownership.
Which brings me to Nufarm. The crop-protection and seeds company has had a horror year. The one-year total return (including dividends) is down 57%, in a rising share market.