A BNP Paribas/AFR survey recently found that 55% of senior finance executives believed economic shocks that rock markets, either locally or globally, are their biggest concerns. Yeah, that’s what most of us expect will happen one day but the “when?” question is kind of important. Our hotshot executives worry it might happen some time in the next, wait for it, 10 years!
I think in 10-year blocks when it comes to stocks because bull markets don’t usually do much better than six years and that’s why Geoff Wilson (of listed investment company WAM) lacks confidence on stocks. He says it’s hard to see value at the moment so unless things change, he wouldn’t be surprised to see a sell off.
(Over a 10-year run, I expect seven good years for stocks and maybe two-three bad ones. I expect a gain of 10% per annum and half of that to come from dividends. You can do better or worse than these historical averages but they have been pretty good in showing up reliably.)