1. Prospa (PGL, $1.81)
Market capitalisation: $291 million
Analysts’ consensus valuation: $3.05 (FN Arena)
After its first listing attempt was pulled at the last minute in June 2018, amid concerns from the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC), small-business specialist lender Prospa got away second time around, in June, jumping 19% on its debut, after being priced at $3.78. By September the stock had pushed almost to $5, but Prospa hit the skids in November, slumping 28% after releasing an earnings update that the market saw as disastrous.
Prospa told investors that its earnings and revenue for (calendar-year) 2019 and the first half of 2020 would be below its prospectus forecasts – in fact, it would fall short of its June 2020 earnings forecast (that is, EBITDA, or earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation) by more than 60%. (Net profit is not expected until FY21.) The shares almost halved in price in four trading days.